Tomorrow, Democrats in North Carolina (115) and Indiana (72) will elect 46% of the remaining pledged delegates in this primary season.
So it’s an important day for our democracy, again.
I’ve mentioned before that the reality of what remains of the Democratic primary is a battle between Hillary Clinton’s campaign and some math so simple that even I can understand how it works.
It has also been noted that the delegate projections made by the Obama campaign several months for each caucus and primary has been remarkably accurate. In fact, Obama’s delegate count is actually running ahead of what they projected.
For example, the Obama campaign projected that Barack Obama would win 75 of 158 delegates in Pennsylvania two weeks ago and he won 73. This weekend, in the all-important Guam primary, a 2-2 split on Guam’s four remaining delegates was dead on with Ombamath projected.
As the DailyKos pointed out in March, even in states “lost” by Obama on Super Tuesday (like California) the difference was actually smaller than what was projected. It also gave him a comfortable lead in pledged delegates that has not relinquished.
I’ve been using the data from Real Clear Politics since Super Tuesday to keep track of the delegate count between Clinton and Obama. There are other good sources but RCP seems to be as up-to-date as any of them.
This is where the count stands as of tonight:
Delegate Count (5/5/08)
Needed to nominate: 2,025
Barack Obama (+139)
- Pledged: 1491
- Super delegates 256
- Total: 1747
- Needed to nominate: 278
Hillary Clinton
- Pledged: 1337
- Super delegates: 271
- Total: 1608
- Needed to nominate: 417
- Total remaining pledged delegates: 404 of of 4,049
- Total remaining super delegates: 267 of 794
- Total remaining delegates: 671 of 4,843
- Difference between Obama projection and delegates needed to win nomination: 53 (281-228)
The bottom line: if the Obamath is correct, Barack Obama will only need 53 super delegates to secure the nomination after the last primaries in Montana and South Dakota on June 3.
Tomorrow, Obama will probably lose Indiana by about 5% and win North Carolina by 9%. But even if they split the two states, Barack Obama will come out ahead of Clinton on pledged delegates 100-87 and will only need another 317 delegates to win the nomination.
I’ll do a another post tomorrow night when the polls close Indiana (6pm Eastern in Indiana in most counties and 7pm Eastern in some).
North Carolina polls close at 7:30pm EST in most counties.