Wed 21 May 2008
A Ticket I Can Live With
Posted by ME under Barack Obama, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, elections
Tags: Barack Obama, Democrats, elections, Hillary Clinton, US Supreme Court
Barack Obama inched closer to the Democratic nomination last night despite a thumping in Kentucky and a predicted win in Oregon.
In his victory speech from Iowa last night, Obama offered praised to both Hillary Clinton and her supporters for their effort to seat a Democrat in the White House. Obama is going to need both if he wants to win the White House in November.
Naturally, there will be even more attention focused on when Clinton will suspend her campaign and who Barack Obama will select for vice-president in the coming weeks.
I’ve suspected for some time that Obama’s VP nominee will have to be somebody who is a more established political leader (i.e., “older) than Obama with impeccable foreign policy credentials who is not named Hillary Clinton. I’m now leaning toward Joe Biden (DE), Wesley Clark or Jim Webb (VA).
I don’t see HRC giving up her Senate seat to run for vice-president in 2008 but Obama faces the same problem as every nominee selected in a close race faces: he has to at least offer a place on the ticket to the runner-up.
In the case of John F. Kennedy in 1960, the offer of the vice-presidency to then-Senate majority leader Lyndon Johnson backfired when LBJ unexpectedly accepted the offer. The Kennedys assumed that the offer was a formality and nobody as powerful as Johnson who give that up to be second bananna.
James Andrew Miller of the WaPo offers an interesting solution to the “what about Hillary?” problem for the Obama campaign: offer her the next vacancy on the US Supreme Court.
I think this would have to be done rather stealthily — Hillary has already raised more money for the RNC over the years than most Republicans. If HRC were publicly touted for a seat on the Court, more than a few conservative heads would explode.
But it’s a good idea and would go a long way toward shoring-up support for an Obama-______________ ticket in the Democratic base.
27 Responses to “ A Ticket I Can Live With ”
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May 21st, 2008 at 7:06 am
Jim Webb is who I’ve thought of for some time. But if you’re looking for a guy with a good political background and the ability to negotiate with team elephant, Mark Warner is the most solid choice. He is very popular in VA, and has managed some herculean efforts in a fairly solid Republican state as governor. I would be a fan of that.
May 21st, 2008 at 7:21 am
With all the recent stories about how sexism is supposedly the reason Hillary isn’t going to win, and how women are going to stay home in November if she is not on the ticket, what are the chances Obama has to pick a woman for the ticket?
I know it’s a longshot, but our governor, Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, has been a relatively popular 2-term Democratic governor of a mostly Republican state. I think she would do pretty well, even if she’s not a fireball of personality.
May 21st, 2008 at 7:31 am
I don’t know too much about Sebelius other than she’s a progressive governor of a red state.
I’ve heard her name mentioned as a VP this week but I really think the women’s vote will come around to Obama, especially in light of the alternative.
May 21st, 2008 at 7:40 am
It will be Wesley Clark.
Jim Webb is an unknown to the average American. “Jim Webb” sounds so generic. Sounds like he could have been a movie extra for the Grapes of Wrath.
TCB
May 21st, 2008 at 8:30 am
I would like it to be Biden. I like his candor and respect his experience with foreign policy. He was unknown to me before the primaries, but I came to like and respect him a lot during the debates, and I thought that he had a good run. I don’t, however, think that he’ll get it. I think that you’re going to see an old white man, probably a governor of a swing state. Strickland or Warner are both names that come to mind.
God save us from HRC on the Supreme court. I think that I’d rather have McCain in the White House. Clinton doesn’t strike me as the kind of person who has a lot of respect for rules if they get in the way of what she thinks ought to be done, even if those rules are written in the Constitution. I also have some serious concerns about positions she’s already expressed relating to issues faced by the SC. For one thing, I think that she would support massive expansion of the presidency.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:31 am
Even though I am vehemently opposed to Obama as president (and the alternatives aren’t much better either), I would have been all for a Biden-Obama ticket…just not the other way around.
The more I’ve learned about Joe Biden, the more saddened I am that he didn’t make it further in the race.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:53 am
Jim Webb is who I would pick. If not, it has to be some other crusty, old, white veteran. This talk of a Democratic female VP is rubbish. Too many people are already freaked out by the possibility that a black man might be president. A black man and a woman is just pushing it too far. You don’t have to win all of the troglodyte vote in November, but you do have to win at least a few of them.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:05 am
Yeah, but Webb has been getting a lot of good press lately for his new book. He was on Letterman the other night and NPR’s “Fresh Air” yesterday. I think anyone who has already endorsed HRC won’t fly.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:29 am
I realize this is a long shot but what about Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska? I wouldn’t mind seeing a cross party ticket to further boost Obama’s bipartisan appeal, and he has been critical of the Bush administration’s Iraq policies. He’s also older (61) and served in Vietnam.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:46 am
I think someone who has endorsed Clinton is the most likely outcome. Its almost like putting her on the ticket, and the unity symbolism involved would generate good press. Governors Strickland and Rendell of Ohio and Pennsylvania seem to be high on the list. I love me some Jim Webb, but I would hesitate to put him on the ticket unless absolutely necessary simply because he can hold a Senate seat in VA that I’m not sure too many other Democrats can. My preference would be Biden, who I think would shine in a Cheney-like role (not an heir-apparent).
May 21st, 2008 at 10:16 am
I beg your pardon, friend, but offering HRC a seat on the Supreme Court is certainly, absolutely not a good idea, not even politically. Call me old fashioned (or elitist), but I believe presidents should appoint judges to the Supreme Court, or, at the very least, elite (not elitist), ultra-serious lawyers or law professors.
The consumate, ferocious, fighting politico has no place on the high court: 1. She’d gum up the works. 2. She’d be miserable, all cloistered away, getting headlines maybe every six to eight months, having to write long, thoughtful pieces instead of wonkish pandering soundbites.
Besides, if Obama gets the Catholic vote, he’s going to owe Doug Kmiec some good love.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:57 am
…he’s going to owe Doug Kmiec some good love.
That’s nasty on so many levels.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:57 am
HRC=US Supreme Court? Intersting but not nearly as effective as HRC serving in an administrative capacity however, I’m open to new things but the question is, is she? On the subject of VP’s, I like Colin Powell…talk about crossing party lines, right? I think the people are expecting someone with name status like HRC or J edwards, etc. Older White guys (only bc race matters in the south and rural america) I don’t think will make this more appealing to the american people.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:02 am
Sebelius would make a nice running mate, but if it’s going to be a female leader from a midwestern red state, I think Claire McCaskill makes more sense. She’s a bit younger, and, if we’re assuming that a VP should deliver the home state, then Mizzou offers more electoral votes than Kansas.
But, mostly, I think JH is right. The Democratic female constituency that has backed HRC will eventually vote for Obama. Same with the majority of Democratic lifers who have been on the HRC train; they’re Democratic lifers for a reason, and as upset as they might be about the loss, they’ll fall in line come election time.
So, what Obama probably wants is the White man, the Mel Gibson to his Danny Glover. He’s trying to attract independents and undecideds, not hardcore Democrats, and the White man is going to do it for him.
Biden and Dodd would make great VPs, but not great running mates, if that makes sense. I think they’re looking at high up cabinet positions, and I couldn’t be happier for them.
I also like Wesley Clarke, but he’s mostly a Clinton guy, and, again if we’re looking for a VP to deliver a home state, I’m not sure he’s closely connected to AR enough to do that, nor am I sure that AR is a big enough prize. On the other hand, he lends a great deal of credibility to Obama’s foreign policy and Commander-in-Chief creds and could go a long way towards offsetting McCain’s service record (minus torture, of course) nationally.
I think I also prefer Warner over Webb, though both represent a state that would be a HUGE electoral win in November (another minus for Biden - no offense, ME).
The other upside of Warner is that his campaign in VA was run by Mudcat Saunders, a Southern-drawling liberal who knows how to connect with rural voters (hello, Appalachia, where Obama’s had his biggest problems) and who was most recently working on the campaign of Obama’s newest endorser, John Edwards.
How politically savvy is Obama? Very, if this primary campaign is any indication. What are the odds that he does indeed offer HRC the first Supreme Court nomination, then privately railroads her when the hearings come?
May 21st, 2008 at 11:15 am
Great point Justindburton…
There is a need for Obama to really think about wooing Appalachia, southern rooted folk. I don’t think Webb would translate well outside of VA, but I could be wrong. The primaries have really shown so far that he’s gonna struggle in the more “rural” southern states, and any advantage that can be met against McCain is best. I really think that the “northern liberal”-type is the worst way to go here.
I am pretty confident that he’ll offer HRC the world, and then hand her a lettuce wedge once he becomes president. The “Clinton” brand is obviously not quite as strong as many thought. Maybe 2004 was the window for her.
Hindsight being 20/20 and all, should she have vigourously run during the last election? I wonder if she would have had more support based on name then as opposed to now….
May 21st, 2008 at 11:32 am
Warner is problematic for the same reason as Webb, namely that he can win a Senate seat (he’s running for the retiring John Warner’s seat) that Democrats can’t otherwise win. If Dems hope to move any ambitious domestic legislation in the next Congress, they’re going to need to get as close to 60 votes as they can and a pickup in Virginia is vital to that effort.
I also disagree that Biden would not be a good running mate. VPs don’t bring states with them, and Biden addresses a perceived weakness in the Obama campaign (foreign policy). McCain fully intends to make this election entirely about toughness in the foreign policy realm, and an attack dog running mate who is whip smart on these issues is a huge plus.
As to the suggestion that Obama would nominate Clinton and then spike her on the Hill, I can hardly imagine anything less likely or more stupid. Having an SC nomination go down in flames is horribly embarrassing for a President, and if something like that ever came to light (and it certainly would) he could kiss a second term goodbye.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:43 am
Claire McCaskill seriously endeared herself to me when she jumped on the Obama train, but she brings nothing to the ticket other than two X chromosomes. She is a first-term senator. She brings no foreign policy or “gravitas” to the table. And she voted for telecom immunity.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:46 am
Kolby…
Are failed noms really that damaging?
Harriet Meyers seems like a distant memory (particularly with everything else going on) and Regan screwed up multiple times and it didn’t hurt him that much.
But simply hinting at the SC posibility doesn’t have to be a possibility, just a clever way around a potentially bad situation.
My opinion on Biden is colored, simply because I don’t really like him. Another interesting democratic strategy!!!
May 21st, 2008 at 11:59 am
Political momentum is very important if you’re trying to accomplish anything domestically. Harriet Myers opened a huge rift in the conservative coalition that seriously weakened Bush’s influence, and signs of political weakness make rounding up the necessary support on difficult votes that much harder. If Obama really wanted to get rid of any political threat from Clinton, stashing her on the Court seems as good a place as any.
May 21st, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Bringing states certainly isn’t the only thing a running mate can do, but the potential for it should be a factor, I think, especially with the coloring in of the electoral map in the last two elections.
Biden is fantastic in several ways, including, as Kobly mentions, his foreign policy gravitas, but I think he simply turns people off because he doesn’t soundbite well. Again, a good quality in a VP but maybe not in a running mate when trying to reach across the aisle. I’m not so much against him as I am for a few others in front of him. The upside is that he can outtalk anyone in a debate. He can just keep going and going until the moderator and opponent give up and walk out.
As for the stupidity of spiking HRC, yeah, admittedly that’s the case. He’d be smarter to promise her something then come up with a valid reason not to follow through when the time comes. But Obama’s rubber and she’s glue; I think it wouldn’t be too tough to make her failed nomination her fault instead of his. Still, it’s not worth pushing any further with Kolby on this; I think I’m too used to a president who can screw up day in and day out and still manage to be re-elected and have forgotten that that’s not likely to remain reality.
I’m in the camp that thinks Obama doesn’t really owe her anything. If he can come up with a way to help her pay off her debt, then that really should be more than enough. As for VP, a cabinet position, or the SC, she can kiss off.
But he’s probably nicer and more politically expedient than I am.
baristaberry’s right about McCaskill’s inexperience. McCain and Co. would pound on the greenness of that ticket. Making her the running mate is the sort of strategy that would play better to the voters already in Obama’s corner than the ones he’s trying to reach now.
In case you’re wondering, I’ve now backed off nearly every single point I made in my first comment. I guess I’m not feeling too contentious today…
May 21st, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Regarding a HRC nomination: Is Hillary stupid enough to think she could make it past a senate vote? I don’t think she can, and she knows that she has many political enemies.
Second, Obama is in trouble with the racist person who doesn’t want to vote for him. A white VP is unlikely to change those votes. Obama has to hope that they are to stupid to know who they vote for or that they will go for a racist ticket (minor party) and not toss key votes to McCain.
Finally, I see the vp maybe appealing to Hispanics. I think that Bill Richardson might deliver some key votes in places with heavy hispanic populations, and he had the best rounded resume in the race on either side. I also could see one of the Sanchez sisters out of CA being considered if he wants a female.
May 21st, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Earl Warren was a politician who ended up being a pretty good Supreme Court justice…that said, I still can’t see Hillary accepting such a position!
I think he should pick Hagel…
May 21st, 2008 at 2:03 pm
VP candidates bringing states with them is an interesting topic. Its generally agreed that the last VP who brought a state with them that a candidate wouldn’t have otherwise won was LBJ in Texas in 1960 (and that likely had as much or more to do with his mastery of the political dark arts than his popularity). I’ve thought about it a bit today, and I’m not sure there is such a person for Obama to pick. Would Sibelius bring Kansas? No. McCaskill couldn’t deliver Missouri, nor could Wes Clark bring Arkansas. I think Obama’s chances of winning Virginia hinge entirely on himself, and Webb doesn’t have much of a political machine of his own to contribute (that honor goe to Gov Kaine). Ted Strickland in Ohio and Bill Richardson (yuck) in New Mexico are the closest I can get to thinking they might put him over the top in a swing state, but I still don’t think the VP makes much difference in a state specific way.
May 21st, 2008 at 2:08 pm
The CW in Washington is that if Hillary was nominated to the Court she wouldn’t have much trouble getting confirmed. The Senate will have at least 56 Dems and I think, at the end of the day, Republicans would realize that they could do far worse from a Democratic president. I’m not sure if that CW is accurate, but it seems to be widely agreed upon. I’d prefer Cass Sunstein anyway.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Unsuprisingly (at least to JRB and I) I agree with JRB on how bad of an idea it would be to nominate Hillary for the Supreme Court. Kolby, I agree with most of your points but I don’t think anyone should be “stashed” on The Court.
Personally I think Hillary would make a good VP and probably would make a fine President. But please keep her away from SCOTUS.
May 21st, 2008 at 4:14 pm
He can’t pick Strickland . . . McCain will have a field day with that clip of him doing the bobblehead “yes, yes” onstage as Hillary shrieked, “Shame on you, Barack Obama!”
I’d like to see HRC permanently exiled to the Supreme Court. Otherwise she’s just going to keep trying to whine, coerce and demand her way into the White House. She will crash Obama’s inauguration and try to take the oath of office herself. She is like the villain in a horror movie that keeps coming back, even after being killed multiple times.
Or like Kenny on South Park, but much less endearing.
May 21st, 2008 at 4:23 pm
JANIE MACK!
As if the Supreme Court of the United States is not the third-branch of our great constitutional democracy. . .
How ’bout lets stash her in the United States Senate?